It’s prediction time — from national to local races — with just about a week before the general election. As my breakfast group will tell you, I usually win my bets.
Although I have already cast my ballot for Mitt Romney for president, I see almost no way he can win enough electoral votes, although he can come mighty close. In fact, it could be a squeaker.
I have the final tally — with 270 electoral votes needed to win — with Obama with 271 and Romney with 267. It is quite possible Romney will win the popular vote.
Here’s how I got there:
Obama wins all the swing states leaning to him, including Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.
Romney wins all the swing states leaning to him, including Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.
Now for the wild-card tossup states:
Romney will capture Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire.
Obama will capture Wisconsin, Iowa and … the killer state, Ohio.
Ohio’s unemployment rate is well below the national average, and Obama did, in fact, save the auto industry there. Obama has led there comfortably throughout the campaign, with a tightening only very recently. I believe it will be within two percentage points, but Obama will pull it out. Those 18 electoral votes are critical.
Once the Ohio results are in for Obama, you can turn out the lights and go to bed. Or, you can stay up and watch the U.S. Congress and Senate races. The House will, of course, stay Republican. The Senate will remain Democratic by at least a two-seat margin.
At the Johnson County level, I believe all Republican candidates for the Kansas House and state Senate will sweep to victory. Part of that is because the mood in Kansas these days is decidedly conservative, but also Romney will win decisively in Johnson County, and his coattails will bring along a lot of votes to the local Republican candidates.
Democrat Juanita Roy vs. Republican Greg Smith for the state Senate will be the closest legislative race, decided in favor of Smith by just a few percentage points.
One Democrat in the county will prevail and that is Cindy Neighbor, running for the Kansas Board of Education, over Republican Steve Roberts.
That brings us to the two County Commission races.
Steve Klika will defeat Terry Presta, because of Klika’s deep involvement in the community over the years, and he has run a whale of a campaign. If Klika wins, it will be interesting to see how he interacts with County Chair Ed Eilert. Klika is big on mass transportation. Eilert sees that as a very low priority.
I believe Calvin Hayden will squeak by again in another victory over former commissioner John Toplikar. Toplikar was a lazy commissioner. Hayden has been very responsive and responsible, and voters who have been around know that to be true.
Switching to the other side of state line — where I am somewhat out of my comfort zone — I have felt for some time that there is a surprise in the making. A majority of Missouri voters, who have become more conservative and want a Republican U.S. Senate, will swallow hard and cast their vote for Akin, despite all his gaffes. This would be one of the biggest upsets in the nation. Of course, I should get long odds on this bet.
If you don’t like these predictions, don’t shoot the messenger. I call them as I see them.
| Special to The Star
Terry Presta
7 months, 2 weeks agoDear Mr. Rose:
I read your article in 913 this morning as I do every week. I do take exception to two of your predictions and would be willing to bet you a lunch at Houston’s on each.
First, I believe that I will defeat Steve Klika for county commissioner and I believe that Mitt Romney will defeat the President by a handy margin. I base this on the fact that it’s not just Chairman Ed Eilert that doesn’t support a wild expansion of the Jo bus routes in Johnson County. As I talk to voters, and I have talked to quite a few, I have yet to have someone tell me that this is an important expansion in their view. The main view I hear, is that they absolutely do not support the 45 million dollars in new taxes that Mr. Klika supported towards this expansion in January of 2011 before the board of county commissioners. Mr. Klika has since taken the position that he supports the expansion, but not the tax increase he advocated for. If fact he mentions his support again on page 5 of todays 913 section! But he has backed away from the tax increase that he recommended that is needed to implement it. This is an untenable position to take, supporting the program but not the tax increase needed to implement it. I would point out to your editorial board that it is not a negative ad pointing out this inconsistency.
To sum up, I believe that Presta/Romney will win and Klika/Obama will lose. Will you accept my bet?
Terry Presta
Louise Kearney
7 months, 2 weeks agoYou are a little off. Obama will win Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire and will end up with well over 300 electoral votes. Wait and see.
Kevin Carlyle
7 months, 2 weeks agoTerry, look at the state polls.
The election is driven by them since the electoral college matters.
Assuming he wins every state where there is a consensus that he leads in the polls he’ll get 271 electoral votes and that’s before tossups.
At this point for Romney to win would require the entire polling industry to be wrong.
John W Mack Jr.
7 months, 2 weeks agoTerry, you are definitely in serious denial mode if you insist that Rmoney will win. ANY slim chance he had was another casualty of Sandy. Rmoney’s own mouth did him in more than anything else.
Let’s hope he doesn’t waste our time again in 2016.
Joaquin X Santiago
7 months, 2 weeks agoNote to Terry Presta: Challenging an online pundit to a double-dog-dare-ya bet on an election result does not inspire confidence in your ability to be an elected official.